The Math Behind a Postcard Advertising Campaign

I'm trying postcards again, but here's a few changes I made.

1. Now that my positioning is focused on CrossFit men, I can target the locations where those men hang out: CrossFit gyms.
2. Instead of a generic CTA & visuals, I'm reusing my website branding and illustrations to create continuity (i.e., what they see on the postcard will be exactly what they see on the website too = building trust).
3. I'm measuring the success of the campaign over multiple sends versus a single blast. I just didn't know any better with my previous EDDM test. But now, I'm going to send a similar number of postcards (4,000-6000), except it'll be through repeated sends to the same 1,000 potential gym partners.

Ok, let's jump right in.

Crafting a Targeted List

In my previous postcard test, I could reach a household for $0.19. The problem was these weren't targeted at all. It was essentially the same as shouting on the corner of the street — great for awareness; terrible for conversion.

Here was the thinking behind targeting CrossFit gyms instead.

• They're information is public, meaning I can find the addresses relatively easily.
• They're concentrated: each gym represents a potential 50-100 readers on average.
• Most gym owners (~70%) are men, so I'm communicating directly with my target reader with each send.

To find the addresses I relied on two resources: CrossFit's own Affiliate List and Affiliate Map. The list is a public database of gym names and their city locations. The map is a worldwide resource that has individual pages for each gym - meaning you can find the actual street address, owner names, and more for every single one.

FYI, the Map is significantly more useful than the List. It's a pain to navigate, but I found that an average of 30% of CrossFit gyms were missing from the List. And yes, these were active affiliates.

No idea why there was such a discrepancy, but it was confirmed by their own support team.

I focused on the following states:

1. Ohio
2. New York
3. Virginia
4. Vermont
5. Maine
6. Oregon
7. Massachusetts
8. California
9. Texas

Ohio was first because it's my home base. I also figured that any Ohio sends would arrive relatively quickly compared to further states, so I could get data a few days quicker.

States 2-8 (NY - CA) were chosen because they had the most familiarity with Substack.

I figured this would give me an advantage — if a CrossFit guy is already subscribed to something on the platform, it's that much easier of an ask to join my newsletter.

To round out my 1,000 sends, I started curating a list of states where interest in CrossFit seemed to be rising. These included states like Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho.

But in the end, I decided to focus on states with the largest CrossFit presence - thinking that it would be easier to spread in these environments. Texas seemed like the top pick.

They have anywhere from 300-400 active affiliates, run a massive amount of their own competitions, and are incredibly influential on the sport (the games moved there from Wisconsin for good reason). If I can win in Texas, it'll only be a matter of time before all those smaller states follow me too.

The Real Numbers Behind Printing and Mailing

For postcard printing, I went with Canva.

They're slightly more expensive than alternatives, but I've been super impressed by the quality in the past (I've ordered flyers, pamphlets, and posters from them). Plus, you submit your job right inside their design tool which makes the whole process a breeze.

The cost for 1,000 small postcards, with double-sided printing, comes out to $170, or $0.17 per card.

Because these are shipped out manually, instead of handed out door-to-door like EDDMs, I had to buy stamps - which was the most expensive part of this process.

A postcard stamp is cheaper than a letter one, coming to out $0.56 per postcard.

Finally, I handwrote the addresses on the first 300 postcards. It was freaking exhausting and my hand was in shambles 😅. So, I picked up a pack of these Avery labels. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of ink costs, each label costs me about $0.01 and saves me roughly 1-minute per card (depending on how long the address is).

Buying an hour back for $0.60? I'll take that deal all day every day.

That brings my grand total to print, prepare, and send a postcard to:

$0.74

Meaning each batch of 1,000 costs $740.

Business Math: LTV, CAC

All of this math only makes sense in the context of LTV.

Hormozi talks about the golden ratio all the time -> 3:1.

You want to be spending less than one-third of a customer's potential lifetime value (LTV) to acquire them (CAC).

If you have a product with a $100 LTV, you ideally want to spend $33 or less to get a customer. Less than that equals more profit. More than that makes it hard to keep your business running.

Now, I don't have enough data to say what my LTV is, but based on what I could find on subscription products — anywhere from 6-18 months seemed realistic so I decided to plop right down the middle at 12 months or 1 annual subscription.

My current price point is $299, meaning I can potentially spend up to 1/3 of my profit from that:

• Substack takes 10% or ~$30.
• Stripe takes 3% or ~$9.
• That leaves me with $260 in revenue per customer per year.
• And 1/3 of that is ~$85.

Therefore, I can reasonably spend $85 to acquire an annual paid subscriber to Bending Pink Steel.

Business Math: Conversion %

With those numbers in mind, let's map out the conversions I would need to break even on my postcard marketing.

I read a ton on direct marketing in the last few months. I'd link to the resources - but I really don't know who's worth trusting - so at this point, I'll wait to share/recommend until I can actually put my stamp on it (haha, a mail pun). 💌

The general advice is that a campaign is only measurable after a minimum of 4 sends. I was really impatient with my EDDM, so it might be worth a try in the future - especially if I have something with more broad appeal.

But anyhoo, back on topic.

At $740 a send, four mailings will cost me: $2,960.

At an expected CAC of $85, my minimum threshold for this campaign would be: 35 paying annual subscribers. (2960/85=34.8 -> round up)

Ok, now here's a fun part.

If I were only trying to convert the gym owners to customers, I would need a conversion rate of 3.5%. Slightly high for the average direct mail campaign (which hovers around 2%), but within the realm of possibility because of the multiple mailings to targeted lists.

What's interesting is when you extrapolate it out to the potential member reach. The average gym holds 165 members (see PDF below).

A super conservative estimate of 50% male puts the reach at 80+ per gym. Simply put, for every postcard I send I actually have the potential to reach 80 men. If a gym owner shares my link, leaves a postcard in the lobby, or mentions it to a coach – each interaction exponentially amplifies my reach.

35 customers from 1,000 is difficult but not impossible (3.5% conversion).

35 customers from 80,000 is stacked in my favor (.04% conversion).

Just Keep Going

What's actually on these postcards?

That sounds like a good idea for next month's post. I have 12 copy examples written out. I also want them to build on each other, but I'm not exactly sure how to do that effectively yet.

So, for now, it's about following the plan, getting people to subscribe, and writing great fucking content.