The Trend Pendulum

Today, I want to share with you a trick for predicting trends. 

Now I know, forecasting can feel like gambling. Sure, there’s data involved. Charts and graphs and statistics. But at the end of the day, it’s still a guess. A leap of faith that your interpretation of what’s happening is correct.

The method I’m going to share with you is no different. It’s intuitive, and the examples I’ll share will support its validity. But at the end of the day, it’s still a guess.

The way you win as a creator or entrepreneur is through volume, not certainty. Your goal should be to take as many guesses (some educated, others not) as possible in the hopes that the ones which pay off more than cover all the mistakes made along the way. 

So, let me share with you a better way to guess.

How a pendulum works

When you think of the word “pendulum” most of our minds go to something like this (see below), an office decoration with a set of metal balls that swing.

The first pendulum was a bit simpler than this, with a single weight held at the end of a long string. Galileo is said to have discovered this physics principle in the late 16^th century. A few decades later, a man named Christiaan Huygens monetized the idea with his invention of the pendulum clock.

People were fascinated by the endless self-propelled movement. It felt like magic. In reality, it was just gravity.

Each oscillation (aka swing) powered the next one.

Modern gravity

In our digital age, attention is the new gravity. It pulls individuals, companies, products, and resources into the limelight faster than ever. It used to take decades to build a billion-dollar company. Now, with enough attention, you can do so in hours. 

The opposite is also true. The weight of attention, and of not having it, is crushing. Too much attention for too long a time leads to destruction. Too little attention is like the astronauts living in zero-gravity space. Given enough time in that environment, they would die from muscle atrophy.

Most people think the trick is to find the perfect amount of attention. The 1,000 true fans equation for sustainable, manageable success. But even that can be suffocating given enough constant exposure to same force. 

A better way forward is an ebb and flow. You want to embrace the attention/gravity for time, make the most of what it brings, and then let it pull away — giving you time to rest, rebuild, and ready for what’s next.

I believe this rhythm already exists in the macro. Understanding it is how we see the future.

Big trends and their opposites

The example that first got me interested in this idea was Marvel versus A24 films. My wife and I are movie lovers. We watch 3-4 new releases each month in theaters, so we’re intimately acquainted with trends in the space. 

Since the release of the first Iron Man movie in 2008, superhero films became the dominant force for profit-seeking studios. Entire universes were built around an ever-growing cast of characters whose stories were told with a near budgetless approach.

As a result, the genre evolved, and we got some of the most beautiful movies ever created. Big stories, big budgets, big rewards. The whirlwind was in full effect, and it was hypnotizing.

But on the periphery was another movement.

Four years after Iron Man’s release, a trio of movie lovers launched their own project: A24. They wanted to fill the “void” they saw in the current industry. Studios were obsessed with telling grand stories that could have mass appeal.

What if they did the opposite?

What if they empowered really creative people, with small budgets, to tell small, interesting stories. From the business standpoint, it was a small bets strategy. Instead of turning $100 million into a billion, could they turn $5 million into ten?

And so off they went, pulling in dozens of first-time directors and actors and launching them into household names – all while telling the types of stories big studios would never touch.

What’s interesting to me is how both parties won.

Marvel ballooned into an asset worth north of $50 billion. And A24 followed suit, transforming from a scrappy startup to a company now valued at $2.5 billion.

They leaned into their respective extremes. It’s a risky strategy to be sure, but riskier than settling for the mindless middle? 

Here are several other examples which bring this tactic to light.

Polished vs authentic

Sam Sulek’s content has been dissected by a number of brilliant content strategists, so I won’t labor their points here. However, on a grander scale I think he’s just the tip of the iceberg representing a desire for “authentic” content.

Opposed to Sam are the Mr. Beast’s who leverage large teams and massive budgets to create media no one thought could exist on YouTube just a few years ago. But for a good while, people have seen this path as the only way to win. They thought big, flashy, and expensive was the singular route to success.

It’s not.

Sam has proven that, along with thousands of others posting de-glamified content. 

Outside of the digital world, we’re seeing other examples of this like actress Pamela Anderson attending red carpet events without makeup or billboards that are purposely poorly designed to capture attention. 

People are craving real, so find ways to give it to them.

Fitness gurus vs body positivity

As the Instagram culture progressively grew more unrealistic, with top influencers hiding their edits or surgeries to push impossible ideals, the pendulum of attention (and attraction) began to swing back.

Dad bods and plus sized influencers exploded onto the scene. Makeup companies, fashion brands, and celebrities all jumped on board to promote this alternative ideal. The voices in this space worked hard to redefine beauty, health, and self-care.

The amount of hate exchanged by both ends was, and in many ways still is, eye-opening. But for the first time ever, either side of the before-and-after picture could win in the beauty space.

Hustle vs lazy

Few words have experienced the rollercoaster ride that “hustle” has. It went from being the gold standard of ambition, to an obscenity. 

In search of a calmer alternative, a few ideas sprouted up. 

• Quiet Quitters were pitted against Loud Laborers
• Girlboss opportunities contrasted against lazy girl jobs
• Hustle culture found it’s opposite in “soft living”

In the face of burnout, people took the all-or-nothing approach and a host of viral media and products won by leveraging either end of the spectrum.

Retro vs new

New used to mean something because it was available so infrequently. New media, new companies, new technologies all had a set pace about them that allowed people to take in what was before they could adjust to what came next. (I really miss the TGIF days).  

Now, hyperspeed is the standard. New is table stakes. In many industries, what used to be measured in years is now measured in days. 

As a result, the pendulum has swung back towards simpler times. Nostalgia-focused media and products are seeing incredible demand as people seek out not only the items themselves, but the world in which they existed. 

Retro gaming, clothing, and even recipes (look up great depression meals) are in record-breaking demand.

This isn’t a trend driven only by aging millennials either. Gen Zers are curious for a world they never knew, while Gen X and beyond seek to recreate the world they felt they lost. Like I said above, going “retro” isn’t just about giving people a glimpse at a different period, it’s taking them there.

Robots vs humans

Expect this one to only grow more distinct as the AI revolution matures.

One small way we’re seeing this is in the content world. As AI blogging tools develop, the value people see in human created and curated content increases. Volume used to be a competitive advantage. Now, less so, since almost anyone can publish thousands of articles in a day. 

Expect this to carry on into niches like craftsmanship, service, food, and medicine. People will increasingly want proof that something is human-made.

Small vs big

The rise of short-form video was always going to lead to strong competitors, but I don’t think people saw long-form as the obvious choice.

Super long YouTube videos and podcasts are as opposite to 15-second clips as one could imagine. But therein lies the allure. What these massive assets lack in shareability and viral-potential, they more than make up for monetization and trust-building.

A single 4-hour podcast from Tim Ferriss is equal to approximately 1,000 short-form videos. Which would you rather produce? Which would you rather consume? 

Like every example we’ve given, there will be winners on both sides of the pendulum swing, but I think this example, in particular, is a powerful reminder that you can choose which side you play on.

Additional pendulum examples

I catalogued just over 40 examples for this report, but I focused on sharing ones that were (A) easy to understand and (B) somewhat mainstream. On the periphery were a host of interesting ones that might be less useful, but I’ll share a few here anyways:

• Autonomy vs dependence. The NPC Pinkydoll drama brought to light a contrast between autonomy (people choosing their actions) and dependence (letting your actions be dictated by others). Can you win online by not being creative or different or innovative but by simply following directions? Why does it make us so uncomfortable to watch someone only do what they’re told?

• Abstinence vs excess. The gem here is that it can be applied to any on/off habit. You can build products, communities, or content around topics like Dry January or it’s opposite. Anything that people struggle to consume too much of or try to go cold turkey on will have regular upticks in attention (and opportunities as a result).
• 5-minute meals vs perpetual stew. A person cooking stew for a week sounds ridiculous, and when you up that number to 60 continuous days… well, curiosity is going to pull you in. This is another great example of long vs short, immediate vs delayed. How can you subvert expectations so drastically that people must pay attention?
• Pickleball vs mainstream sports. Pickleball has been on a rocket ship for the last few years, and I believe it owes a lot of that to its accessibility. Much like CrossFit in the early days, Pickleball is an outlier that invites people of all shapes and sizes to leverage competition as exercise. It’s a health trend, social trend, and retail trend all at the same time.

• Free vs paid media. Jessica Lessin single-handedly proved the entire news industry wrong by building a paid-only media outlet called The Information. In 2013, one year after Lessin launched, this Business Insider article talked about how even though the industry is laughing at her – maybe she’ll get the last laugh in the end (spoiler: she did). Expect to see more companies like this and Nebula, where paid content is king.

How to spot pendulum opportunities

By now, I hope you’re mostly convinced of the big idea: wherever there’s a surge of interest, there will also be opportunity in its opposite. So, how do you put this strategy into action? 

Step 1: Find the crowd

The first step is easy, just look for where attention, money, and users are flocking. A new app? Restaurant? Style? This can be in your niche or adjacent, it doesn’t much matter in the beginning. What you want to do is get good at spotting these movements.

Learn to listen well. Notice when a video on a channel you subscribe to does measurably better than their other content. When you see the same guest appear on dozens of the top podcasts, dig a little deeper. Next time you’re walking around the mall, pay attention to what the models on the posters look like. 

The crowd wants you to know what they like.

Step 2: Name the source

The crowd never likes something just because. There’s always a deeper current driving interest. 

For example, Instagram’s fitness gurus tap into cultural definitions of beauty. But beauty isn’t just appearance. It signifies success, belonging, and power. To be beautiful is to have the life you want. And if you are not beautiful… you are not successful, you do not belong, and you have no power.

Those are visceral emotions being tapped into. It’s why social has the power it does over people, from their mental health to their wallets.

When you find a crowd, look beyond the surface to see what really attracts them to the thing or person. Hint: it’s always emotional.

Step 3: Swing the pendulum

Now that you know what’s at the heart of a trend’s attraction, you can use that as a starting point for its opposite.

If we return to the beauty guru example, here’s how the process might go.

• Starting point – the things you want are a result of conventional beauty standards
• Begin swing – you can have the things you want without looking like an IG model
• Further swing – we should make new beauty standards
• Furthest swing – people who follow conventional beauty standards are unhealthy outsiders who don’t deserve love or success

You’ll know you’ve swung the pendulum as far as it can go when both ends make you (or maybe at least most people) uncomfortable. Of course, people can be beautiful and successful on either end of the spectrum. But we’re talking about how attention works, and attention loves extremes.

Obviously, it’s up you to choose how far you swing it. There are consequences no matter what you choose. My job is simply to show you how it works.

Step 4: Inject novelty

Now, I say novelty, but what I actually mean is ridiculousness.

The Telsa Cybertruck was bulletproof because it was headline-worthy. SoftBank poured $10 billion dollars into WeWork because it cemented them as risktakers. Breatharianism claims people can live on sunlight and air because the claim is so outlandish it literally pulls you in to ask more questions. 

As you swing the pendulum, don’t forget to dress it up.

Trends become trends because they capture attention in a new way. Then, they stick around because people leverage them to gain attention for themselves (brand, product, channel, etc.).

A24 didn’t just make small budget movies. They subverted expectations. They took a group of Disney kids and cast them in a bikini and drug-fueled action film called Spring Breakers. In Lamb, a woman adopts a human/sheep hybrid as her own child. Tusk is a horror film about a man who gets turned into…wait for it… a walrus. 

These movies were vying for movie goer dollars against Iron Man, The Hulk, and Captain America. How in the world did they not get laughed out of theatres?

Because they were obviously different.

And that is the power of the pendulum swing. It helps you see what works, as well as what could work. It pushes you further than you would have gone on your own, because further is what makes people pay attention.

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